Coronavirus and Economic Cycles - Is a recession here? I think Yes
Hi Welcome back! Apologies I have not posted since early 2019. If you have not yet read my post during the bear market at the end of 2018, I would highly recommend having a browse through that first as it contains information about how debt/ credit cycles operate. 2018 Blog Post. Although I cannot time the market, at the end of 2018 I had noticed we were at the end of the long term and short term debt cycles (see 2018 Post above). However, I also thought that at that time it was a short term bear market (via technical analysis and yield curves). So what has changed since the end of 2018 that made me reconsider whether the recent coronavirus developments will trigger a full-blown recession? DISCLAIMER: The information on this Blog doesn't constitute personal financial advice. Is Coronavirus the Cause of the Upcoming recession? In my 2018 post , I highlighted that US private debt to GDP is at all-time highs since the Great Depression in the 1930s, which is s...