New Account , Trades placed: Visa (NYSE), Macquarie (ASX), WPL (ASX)

Hi,

After contacting my broker, I FINALLY AM ABLE TO SHORT!! However, I believe the bear market over the past couple of months is coming to an end, so it's kind of a bummer. Also, in order to gain shorting rights I had to open a new account so now my records are all messed up.

Here are my results before having to close the account I have been working on thus far:

Not to brag but I was consistently beating the S&P 500!! (Albeit not by much). However, now my track record has been wiped in the new account so we shall start again.

Nevertheless let's get into my most recent trades.

DISCLAIMER: The following is not a recommendation. It is my opinion and I am not qualified so do not take the following as investment advice.



S&P500:

The SPX has closed and managed to stay above the VIDYA signalling a possible uptrend.

The weekly MACD has crossed also indicating the bear market is over.

Close above 200 EMA. Also very bullish. ALthough it is overextended so I am expecting a pullback into resistance (likely to 200 EMA).

However overall, I believe the market is in recovery mode, at least technically in the short-term. Fundamentally, well that's for another time.

Therefore we have a bullish bias. Look for long opportunities.

ASX200: 

Same situation as the SPX. Bullish bias, look for longs.


NOW INTO MY TRADES:


Visa (V:NYSE) - LONG (Av. price) = 139.60, 10 shares, 4 Feb 2019.

Weekly MACD crossover indicating the end of the downtrend and V is poised for recovery. I bought at the stochastic crossover on the daily and MACD histogram showed bullish momentum, right where the stock found support at the 200EMA. It is becoming overextended and I expect it to pullback before heading higher. I would've liked V's pullback to be a little deeper but it had released earnings so price jumped a little.

I currently have a stop loss at 135 = less than 1% risk to my portfolio.

Update - 8 Feb 2019

Sold as S&P500 is expected to do a pullback. Breakeven.


Macquaire Group (MQG: ASX) - LONG (Av. price) = 118.85, 16 shares, 6 Feb 2019.

Once again weekly MACD crossover = bullish bias. Bought at the daily MACD histogram bullish momentum and stochastic crossover, signalling rejection from the 100 EMA and the cluster of all the other EMAs there. Once again would've liked pullback to be a little deeper but overall bullish.

Stop loss @ 115 = less than 1% risk to portfolio.


Update 8 Feb 2019

Sold as price was overextended/ overbought. Should've invested in a stock with a safer upside. I am expecting a pullback so might buy back depending on how far it pulls back to.

Sold @ 120.88 (inc. all fees). Gain of 1.7%.


Woodside Petroleum (WPL: ASX) - LONG (Av. price) = 34.60, 57 shares, 5 Feb 2019.

Weekly MACD crossover, rejection of support @ 200 EMA. Stochastic crossover and bullish momentum from daily MACD. Stoachstic was a little high for my liking but I did not want to miss out on the recovery and this was available. The more speculative trade of the 3.

Stop loss @ 33.70 = less than 1% portfolio risk.

Update 8 Feb 2019

Sold since apparently the stock is a little choppy/ overbought. Will wait for pullback before re-entering.

Sold @ 33.93 (inc. all fees). Loss of 1.9%. 




TRADES THAT DID NOT EXECUTE (was above my stop loss): Netflix (NFLX: NASDAQ), Goodman Group (GMG: ASX) and EHL: ASX.



I think that I am being a little too risk averse with my position sizing (risk to portfolio is very low). So should I increase my position sizes? On the other hand I feel like I am leaving too little upside by buying on the high side of the stochastic (when the market is slightly overbought). Should I perhaps wait for deeper pullbacks?

Please leave any comments you may have, I am interested to hear your opinion.

Thanks for reading.

Howard